It can be complicated to determine what is a safe level of spending in retirement. There are many thoughts on this problem which can be useful but also make it complicated to figure out what is sensible.

Partially determining the safe amount to spend is a complicated problem so when we try to find simple solutions there are problems. For those in the USA the past results provide fairly reassuring starting points. Historical investment returns in the USA have been substantially better than elsewhere; this results in historically safe spending plans in the USA not necessarily safe elsewhere. It also does point out the risk that if the USA doesn’t maintain historically excellent investing returns that may make seemingly safe plans turn out to be less safe. Those are some of the complications that make retirement planning annoying.

Photo by John Hunter in Langkawi, Malaysia. Prepare so you can retire to a relaxing life on the beach.

There are easy rules, like spending 4% of savings. That has worked pretty well but has potential issues with risk so people worry about using it. Also it is so simple that it isn’t surprising it has issues.

There are no super simple answers in my opinion. But ideas like 4% (or 3.5% or …) do get you at least in the right ballpark for what has worked historically in the USA with specific portfolios… The idea of adjusting spending based on results seems like a very sensible idea to me though many don’t like the complexity this ads to the plan. To me a plan to adjust spending just is a sensible way to deal with the complications that a long retirement (whether that is 20, 30, 40 or more years) brings.

No one blog post is going to provide an answer to the question of How to Safely Spend Savings in Retirement. There are some very good posts, articles and studies on the topic, here are a few:

• The Silliness of the Safe Withdrawal Rate Movement – “The correct answer to “what is a safe withdrawal rate?” is “something around 4%, probably in the 3%-6% range.” Not 3.59% or 4.21%.”
• Bill Bengen: How to Monitor and Adjust Withdrawal Plans
• The Safe Withdrawal Rate Series from the Early Retirement Now web site
• Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable
• Retirees Aren’t Spending The Way They “Should”
• Why Guyton-Klinger Guardrails Are Too Risky For Most Retirees (And How Risk-Based Guardrails Can Help)
• Flexibility is Overrated – SWR Series Part 58
• The 4% Rule – At What Price?

USA Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) do not always offer this return but today you can purchase a 30 years portfolio of TIPS that allow for a 4.6% inflation adjusted “withdrawal rate” (so above the 4% idea) – this link (from the Tips Ladder website) provides what the rater would be when you are reading this. You are limited to 30 years so if you need a longer plan this can’t be your entire portfolio but it certainly provides a good potential investment for some of your portfolio. I have been buying TIPS for the last year, as they have been providing such a favorable safe investing option.

Retirement spending calculators

• Monte Carlo Simulation
• FI Calc
• A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test) explanation and link to worksheet

Related: Using Annuities as Part of a Retirement Plan – Save Some of Each Raise